Hot Picks

AI-vetted picks: crashed companies whose fundamentals still hold up.

Earlier picks 3

Everything the screener has flagged before, most recent first.

LYG

👀 WATCH detected 2026-09-11 Fundamentals65/100

~Watch: Not a crash story — Lloyds has been rebuilding for years and just resolved its biggest overhang (motor finance mis-selling), but upside from here is modest.

Declined -87.3% from its all-time high of $46.47 — now $5.89

I bought this

Full analysis & scorecard›

What's going on

The 87% drop is old news from the 2007-08 financial crisis, not something that just happened; the stock is actually near its 30-day high and up strongly this year, with the main recent worry — a UK regulatory redress scheme for car-loan commission mis-selling — now judged manageable by the company and analysts.

The case for it

Lloyds is a profitable, growing UK bank (26% net margin, 17.7% earnings growth) trading cheaply at under 10x next year's expected earnings, and the market's biggest recent fear — costly compensation payouts for historic motor finance loans — has been addressed with a provision the company says is holding up and regulators have finalized rules for, removing a key uncertainty. It is not a fresh crash; the 87% decline is a decade-plus-old scar from the financial crisis, and the stock has actually been climbing (+46% year-to-date in London) rather than falling.</thesis> <parameter name="risks">The balance sheet score is very weak (8/25) reflecting the inherent leverage and opacity of bank balance sheets, and the motor finance provision, while currently deemed adequate, could still be increased if complaint volumes or litigation costs run higher than expected; also UK banks remain exposed to interest rate swings and any UK economic slowdown, and the stock still trades ~10% below the average analyst target, meaning the "cheap" numbers may just reflect a structurally low-growth, low-multiple sector rather than a mispricing.

What could go wrong

Fwd P/E 9.4Op margin 45.0%Rev growth 12.3%Debt/equity —Analyst upside 9.9%

How this scored 65/100

✅ Passes all 4 hard checks — profitable, cash-generative, and financially survivable.

✅ Makes money Net profit margin 26.4%

✅ Generates cash Free cash flow unknown

✅ Not drowning in debt Debt/equity unknown — exempt (banks run on leverage by design)

✅ Can pay its bills Exempt (financials)

Bar length shows how much each metric is worth — a 10-point metric is twice as wide as a 5-point one. Hover any row for what it means.

Profitability Does it actually make money? 20/25

Operating margin 45.0% 9/9

Net profit margin 26.4% 8/8

Return on equity 11.3% 3/8

Growth Is it getting bigger, or dying? 19/25

Revenue growth 12.3% 5/9

Earnings growth 17.7% 6/8

Expected profit change 48.8% 8/8

Value Is it cheap right now? 18/25

Forward P/E 9.4 10/10

PEG ratio 0.6 8/8

Analyst target upside 9.9% 1/7

Balance sheet Will it survive? 8/25

Debt / equity unknown 3/10

Current ratio unknown 2/8

Free cash flow unknown 2/7

source · source · source

UPST

👀 WATCH detected 2026-09-11 Fundamentals58/100

~Watch: Speculative turnaround story with real profitability now, but extreme volatility, high debt and rate/credit sensitivity make it a hold-and-watch, not a clear buy.

Declined -93.6% from its all-time high of $390.00 — now $25.10

I bought this

Full analysis & scorecard›

What's going on

Upstart crashed from its 2021 peak due to a lending-volume collapse when interest rates spiked and its AI credit model got blamed for rising loan losses; more recently in 2026 it has swung wildly on CEO Dave Girouard's abrupt departure, soft margin guidance, and periodic delinquency scares, even as it also posted a genuine return to GAAP profitability and record originations in Q2 2026.

The case for it

The bull case: Upstart's core business (using AI instead of traditional FICO scores to approve loans for banks) is actually growing fast again — revenue up over 40% and originations at record highs — and it just turned solidly profitable on a GAAP basis with a forward P/E of just 7, meaning if profits hold up the stock is statistically cheap. Analysts see nearly 60% upside from here.

What could go wrong

This is a volatile, rate-sensitive, thinly-capitalized lender-adjacent fintech: it carries heavy debt (debt/equity 258%), burns cash (-$132M free cash flow), had a surprise CEO exit in February 2026, and has a history of collapsing whenever loan delinquencies or interest rates tick up — meaning today's 'profitable' numbers could reverse quickly in the next credit or macro scare, and the stock has already proven capable of round-tripping big rallies (it hit $34 after August earnings, then fell back to $25).

Fwd P/E 7.2Op margin 7.2%Rev growth 42.3%Debt/equity 258.0%Analyst upside 59.4%

How this scored 58/100

✅ Passes all 4 hard checks — profitable, cash-generative, and financially survivable.

✅ Makes money Net profit margin 4.7%

✅ Generates cash Free cash flow $-132M

✅ Not drowning in debt Debt/equity 258.0% — exempt (banks run on leverage by design)

✅ Can pay its bills Exempt (financials)

Bar length shows how much each metric is worth — a 10-point metric is twice as wide as a 5-point one. Hover any row for what it means.

Profitability Does it actually make money? 6/25

Operating margin 7.2% 3/9

Net profit margin 4.7% 2/8

Return on equity 7.9% 1/8

Growth Is it getting bigger, or dying? 25/25

Revenue growth 42.3% 9/9

Earnings growth 211.2% 8/8

Expected profit change 568.5% 8/8

Value Is it cheap right now? 19/25

Forward P/E 7.2 10/10

PEG ratio unknown 2/8

Analyst target upside 59.4% 7/7

Balance sheet Will it survive? 8/25

Debt / equity 258.0% 0/10

Current ratio 10.5 8/8

Free cash flow $-132M 0/7

source · source · source · source · source

DHT

👀 WATCH detected 2026-09-11 Fundamentals74/100

~Watch: Not a crash at all — DHT is near its 52-week high on record tanker rates, but it's a cyclical shipper priced for good times that could end fast.

Declined -90.1% from its all-time high of $217.32 — now $21.43

I bought this

Full analysis & scorecard›

What's going on

The "-90% from all-time high" is misleading: that peak was in 2007 before the financial crisis. Today strong Q1 2026 earnings and higher VLCC tanker rates drove a 37% 90-day and 63% year-to-date share price return, and the stock is actually sitting at its 30-day and 52-week high, not in a fresh selloff.

The case for it

DHT is a crude oil tanker (VLCC) operator benefiting from a strong freight-rate cycle, driven partly by geopolitical tension rerouting oil shipments. Second quarter TCE earnings for its fleet were $126,700 per day, with third quarter spot days booked around $139,700 per day, showing the boom is continuing into the current quarter. The balance sheet is conservative for shipping with long-term debt only about 0.34x equity and total liabilities about 0.4x assets, and the company pays out most of its earnings as dividends, currently yielding double digits.</thesis> <parameter name="risks">Shipping is brutally cyclical — day rates that hit $126,700-$162,600 today can collapse just as fast when geopolitical tension eases or new tanker supply arrives, and DHT's dividend (which is tied to variable net income) would fall right along with earnings. Notably, the CFO, multiple directors, and operational leadership all realized sizeable gains in August 2026, a pattern that sometimes signals insiders think the cycle is peaking, and free cash flow is currently negative ($-33M) despite huge reported profits, meaning cash is going into buying/renewing ships rather than being freely available.</parameter> <parameter name="sources">["https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/dht-holdings-incs-dividend-analysis-111828802.html","https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/look-dht-holdings-dht-valuation-081339588.html","https://incomeinvestors.com/14-yielding-dht-holdings-inc-stock-up-359-over-last-5-years/","https://www.timothysykes.com/news/dhtholdingsinc-dht-news-2026_09_04-2/","https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/dht/quote"]

What could go wrong

Fwd P/E 11.4Op margin 71.3%Rev growth 95.5%Debt/equity 33.2%Analyst upside -4.3%

How this scored 74/100

✅ Passes all 4 hard checks — profitable, cash-generative, and financially survivable.

✅ Makes money Net profit margin 59.3%

✅ Generates cash Free cash flow $-33M

✅ Not drowning in debt Debt/equity 33.2% (limit 200%)

✅ Can pay its bills Current ratio 3.6 (needs 1+)

Bar length shows how much each metric is worth — a 10-point metric is twice as wide as a 5-point one. Hover any row for what it means.

Profitability Does it actually make money? 25/25

Operating margin 71.3% 9/9

Net profit margin 59.3% 8/8

Return on equity 39.2% 8/8

Growth Is it getting bigger, or dying? 17/25

Revenue growth 95.5% 9/9

Earnings growth 252.3% 8/8

Expected profit change -36.7% 0/8

Value Is it cheap right now? 15/25

Forward P/E 11.4 9/10

PEG ratio 1.2 6/8

Analyst target upside -4.3% 0/7

Balance sheet Will it survive? 17/25

Debt / equity 33.2% 9/10

Current ratio 3.6 8/8

Free cash flow $-33M 0/7

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