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AI-vetted picks: crashed companies whose fundamentals still hold up.

Earlier picks 3

Everything the screener has flagged before, most recent first.

NWG

👀 WATCH detected 2026-07-28 Fundamentals55/100

~Watch: Not a crash at all — NWG is near 52-week highs after a multi-year recovery; the "-92%" is 2008 bailout history, so re-underwrite it as a normal bank, not a bargain.

Declined -92.0% from its all-time high of $227.92 — now $18.31

I bought this

Full analysis & scorecard›

What's going on

The -92% figure is leftover from the 2007-2008 financial crisis when the UK government bailed out RBS (now NatWest) with £45.5bn; that crash is 18 years old and irrelevant to today's price action. Since then the UK government fully exited its stake in May 2025, and the stock has been rallying hard, trading near its 52-week high of $19.36 and up roughly 44% over the past year on improving profitability and buybacks.

The case for it

This isn't actually a "crashed but cheap" stock — it's a turnaround success story. The 2008 bailout is ancient history; NatWest is now fully private again, profitable (36.9% net margin, 14.1% return on equity), growing earnings, and returning capital via buybacks, which is why the market has bid it up toward multi-year highs rather than leaving it for dead.

What could go wrong

One source flagged the stock as roughly 34% overvalued versus a "fair value" model, and it's a UK-rate-sensitive bank — if the Bank of England cuts rates faster than expected, net interest income (the spread banks earn on loans vs deposits) could compress, squeezing profits just as the stock trades near record post-crisis highs rather than at a discount.

Fwd P/E 8.4Op margin 50.3%Rev growth 7.5%Debt/equity —Analyst upside 15.9%

How this scored 55/100

✅ Passes all 4 hard checks — profitable, cash-generative, and financially survivable.

✅ Makes money Net profit margin 36.9%

✅ Generates cash Free cash flow unknown

✅ Not drowning in debt Debt/equity unknown — exempt (banks run on leverage by design)

✅ Can pay its bills Exempt (financials)

Bar length shows how much each metric is worth — a 10-point metric is twice as wide as a 5-point one. Hover any row for what it means.

Profitability Does it actually make money? 21/25

Operating margin 50.3% 9/9

Net profit margin 36.9% 8/8

Return on equity 14.1% 4/8

Growth Is it getting bigger, or dying? 13/25

Revenue growth 7.5% 4/9

Earnings growth 15.6% 5/8

Expected profit change 12.5% 5/8

Value Is it cheap right now? 13/25

Forward P/E 8.4 10/10

PEG ratio 2.7 1/8

Analyst target upside 15.9% 2/7

Balance sheet Will it survive? 8/25

Debt / equity unknown 3/10

Current ratio unknown 2/8

Free cash flow unknown 2/7

source · source · source · source

STNE

👀 WATCH detected 2026-07-28 Fundamentals66/100

~Watch: Cheap and genuinely profitable now, but slowing growth and margin pressure in Brazil's competitive payments market keep it a "prove it" story, not a slam-dunk bargain.

Declined -88.2% from its all-time high of $92.34 — now $10.89

I bought this

Full analysis & scorecard›

What's going on

The stock's 2021 collapse came from a botched credit-business rollout, regulatory/accounting changes, and Brazil's economic downturn, which also triggered a securities fraud lawsuit; that lawsuit was later settled for about $26.75 million with no admission of wrongdoing, and the company has since restructured and become solidly profitable (44% operating margin, 26% net margin).

The case for it

Today's numbers are real: StoneCo earns strong profit margins and a 30%+ return on equity, trades at only ~4x trailing earnings, and management is confident enough to run large share buybacks and raise 2025 guidance. If Brazilian small-business payments volumes stabilize and StoneCo defends its market share, the stock could re-rate meaningfully higher — analysts' average target implies large upside, though targets have been trimmed recently.

What could go wrong

Revenue growth has slowed to just 4.3%, several analysts have been cutting price targets over the past months citing volume deceleration, weaker "take rates" (the cut StoneCo keeps per transaction), and rising competition squeezing margins in Brazilian merchant payments — a classic sign that today's fat profit margins may not hold. Debt/equity is also elevated at 134%, and the stock is a "long-dead" name that has failed to recover for years, so there's real risk this is a mature, ex-growth business correctly priced cheap rather than a hidden bargain.

Fwd P/E 4.5Op margin 44.3%Rev growth 4.3%Debt/equity 133.6%Analyst upside 46.4%

How this scored 66/100

✅ Passes all 4 hard checks — profitable, cash-generative, and financially survivable.

✅ Makes money Net profit margin 25.9%

✅ Generates cash Free cash flow $2.3B

✅ Not drowning in debt Debt/equity 133.6% (limit 200%)

✅ Can pay its bills Current ratio 1.3 (needs 1+)

Bar length shows how much each metric is worth — a 10-point metric is twice as wide as a 5-point one. Hover any row for what it means.

Profitability Does it actually make money? 25/25

Operating margin 44.3% 9/9

Net profit margin 25.9% 8/8

Return on equity 30.7% 8/8

Growth Is it getting bigger, or dying? 11/25

Revenue growth 4.3% 3/9

Earnings growth 273.8% 8/8

Expected profit change -11.9% 0/8

Value Is it cheap right now? 18/25

Forward P/E 4.5 10/10

PEG ratio unknown 2/8

Analyst target upside 46.4% 5/7

Balance sheet Will it survive? 12/25

Debt / equity 133.6% 4/10

Current ratio 1.3 2/8

Free cash flow $2.3B 7/7

source · source · source · source · source

SIMO

👀 WATCH detected 2026-07-28 Fundamentals69/100

~Watch: Wait for tomorrow's earnings — the drop looks like profit-taking/nerves after a huge rally, not a broken business, but the binary earnings event makes timing risky.

Fell -20.7% in 10 trading day(s) — now $244.45

I bought this

Full analysis & scorecard›

What's going on

I could not find a specific bad-news trigger (no fraud, no guidance cut, no lost customer) — instead this looks like pre-earnings jitters and profit-taking after the stock had rocketed from $71 to over $350 in a year; the upcoming Q2 2026 earnings release and call on July 29–30 sit at the center of the story, and any sign of weaker orders or softer margins could matter more than usual given sharply higher expectations. Notably there was also a 'Silicon Motion Rocked by Major Insider Stock Sell-Off From Top Directors' report a month ago, which is a caution flag even if not the direct cause of today's move.

The case for it

The growth numbers are genuinely excellent — revenue up over 100% and earnings up nearly 240% — and the forward valuation (forward P/E under 24, PEG of 0.7, meaning the price is cheap relative to growth) still looks reasonable if the next quarter confirms the trend. Analyst price targets (some as high as $400, average around $257-$300+) sit well above today's $244 price, suggesting Wall Street still sees this as a growth story, not a broken one.

What could go wrong

Earnings land literally tomorrow (July 29) — buying now is a bet on an unknown, binary event for a stock that already fell hard heading into it; also free cash flow is negative $125M despite reported profits (meaning the company is burning real cash even though its accounting profit looks good), and insider directors were reported selling shares recently, both of which deserve more scrutiny before assuming this is simply an overreaction.

Fwd P/E 23.9Op margin 15.3%Rev growth 105.5%Debt/equity —Analyst upside 22.0%

How this scored 69/100

✅ Passes all 4 hard checks — profitable, cash-generative, and financially survivable.

✅ Makes money Net profit margin 16.0%

✅ Generates cash Free cash flow $-125M

✅ Not drowning in debt Debt/equity unknown (limit 200%)

✅ Can pay its bills Current ratio 2.9 (needs 1+)

Bar length shows how much each metric is worth — a 10-point metric is twice as wide as a 5-point one. Hover any row for what it means.

Profitability Does it actually make money? 18/25

Operating margin 15.3% 5/9

Net profit margin 16.0% 6/8

Return on equity 20.3% 6/8

Growth Is it getting bigger, or dying? 25/25

Revenue growth 105.5% 9/9

Earnings growth 238.7% 8/8

Expected profit change 101.9% 8/8

Value Is it cheap right now? 15/25

Forward P/E 23.9 5/10

PEG ratio 0.7 7/8

Analyst target upside 22.0% 3/7

Balance sheet Will it survive? 11/25

Debt / equity unknown 3/10

Current ratio 2.9 8/8

Free cash flow $-125M 0/7

source · source · source · source · source

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