Hot Picks

AI-vetted picks: crashed companies whose fundamentals still hold up.

Earlier picks 3

Everything the screener has flagged before, most recent first.

ENPH

⚠ TRAP detected 2026-09-11 Fundamentals66/100

✗Avoid: Avoid — cheap because US residential solar demand is structurally shrinking (tax credit gone, tariffs, high rates), not because of a temporary panic.

Declined -89.0% from its all-time high of $336.00 — now $36.86

I bought this

Full analysis & scorecard›

What's going on

Enphase's stock crashed from $336 in 2022 and has stayed low because US residential solar demand kept deteriorating: the federal Section 25D tax credit expired, tariffs on Chinese battery cells are squeezing margins, and high interest rates have hurt homeowner financing for solar installs.

The case for it

The "cheap" backward-looking numbers (18% operating margin, strong balance sheet, low forward P/E) describe a business that was still riding tailwinds that have since reversed. Revenue is down roughly 20% year-over-year and the company posted a GAAP net loss in its most recent quarter, meaning the earnings base used for that attractive-looking forward P/E is shrinking, not stable.

What could go wrong

The biggest risk is that US residential solar demand keeps falling as tax incentives are gone and rates stay high, causing further guidance cuts; there's also real execution risk in Enphase's pivot toward new bets like AI data-center transformers, which are unproven revenue and years from meaningful contribution (pilot 2027, volume 2028).

Fwd P/E 16.1Op margin 18.0%Rev growth -19.6%Debt/equity 51.9%Analyst upside 45.0%

How this scored 66/100

✅ Passes all 4 hard checks — profitable, cash-generative, and financially survivable.

✅ Makes money Net profit margin 10.1%

✅ Generates cash Free cash flow $78M

✅ Not drowning in debt Debt/equity 51.9% (limit 200%)

✅ Can pay its bills Current ratio 3.5 (needs 1+)

Bar length shows how much each metric is worth — a 10-point metric is twice as wide as a 5-point one. Hover any row for what it means.

Profitability Does it actually make money? 14/25

Operating margin 18.0% 6/9

Net profit margin 10.1% 4/8

Return on equity 13.0% 3/8

Growth Is it getting bigger, or dying? 9/25

Revenue growth -19.6% 0/9

Earnings growth -3.5% 1/8

Expected profit change 125.2% 8/8

Value Is it cheap right now? 20/25

Forward P/E 16.1 7/10

PEG ratio 0.8 7/8

Analyst target upside 45.0% 5/7

Balance sheet Will it survive? 23/25

Debt / equity 51.9% 8/10

Current ratio 3.5 8/8

Free cash flow $78M 7/7

source · source · source · source · source

APH

⚠ TRAP detected 2026-09-11 Fundamentals79/100

✗Avoid: Not really a crash — Amphenol did a 2-for-1 stock split on Sept 3, 2026, so the "-50.8%" price drop is a data artifact, not a business problem.

Fell -50.8% in 7 trading day(s) — now $80.25

I bought this

Full analysis & scorecard›

What's going on

Amphenol executed a stock split around September 3, 2026, which mechanically cuts the share price roughly in half (and adjusts share count up) without changing the value of the company at all; the screening tool appears to be comparing pre-split and post-split prices as if it were a real decline.

The case for it

This isn't a value trap in the classic sense (deteriorating fundamentals hidden behind a falling price), but it is a "trap" for anyone using this data feed: the -50.8% figure is misleading because a stock split makes the price look like it collapsed when nothing actually happened to the company's earnings, cash flow, or balance sheet. Before making any buy/sell decision, you need corrected, split-adjusted price and valuation data — the P/E, price targets, and "% below all-time high" figures shown here are likely stale or wrong because they don't account for the split.

What could go wrong

The biggest risk here isn't Amphenol's business — it's that you'd be trading on broken data. If you assumed a genuine 50% crash and bought expecting a bargain, you could be misjudging the true valuation (P/E, price-to-target, etc.), since those metrics need to be recalculated on a split-adjusted basis; separately, real-world commentary flagged the stock as trading above intrinsic value estimates even before the split, so it may not be as cheap as raw numbers suggest.

Fwd P/E 24.5Op margin 29.8%Rev growth 55.0%Debt/equity 120.4%Analyst upside 23.7%

How this scored 79/100

✅ Passes all 4 hard checks — profitable, cash-generative, and financially survivable.

✅ Makes money Net profit margin 17.7%

✅ Generates cash Free cash flow $3.8B

✅ Not drowning in debt Debt/equity 120.4% (limit 200%)

✅ Can pay its bills Current ratio 1.9 (needs 1+)

Bar length shows how much each metric is worth — a 10-point metric is twice as wide as a 5-point one. Hover any row for what it means.

Profitability Does it actually make money? 24/25

Operating margin 29.8% 9/9

Net profit margin 17.7% 7/8

Return on equity 38.1% 8/8

Growth Is it getting bigger, or dying? 25/25

Revenue growth 55.0% 9/9

Earnings growth 59.3% 8/8

Expected profit change 63.7% 8/8

Value Is it cheap right now? 14/25

Forward P/E 24.5 5/10

PEG ratio 0.9 7/8

Analyst target upside 23.7% 3/7

Balance sheet Will it survive? 16/25

Debt / equity 120.4% 4/10

Current ratio 1.9 5/8

Free cash flow $3.8B 7/7

source · source · source

TTD

⚠ TRAP detected 2026-09-11 Fundamentals59/100

✗Avoid: Avoid — growth has collapsed to near-zero and next quarter's guidance implies an outright revenue decline, the first in company history.

Declined -90.0% from its all-time high of $139.11 — now $13.97

I bought this

Full analysis & scorecard›

What's going on

TTD's crash isn't a one-time event: it fell 68% in 2025 on slowing growth and Amazon/Google competition fears, then in Q2 2026 revenue grew just 3% and management guided Q3 revenue down about 12% (a 19% guidance cut), citing macro weakness in CPG/auto plus internal execution missteps; the company just announced a 15% workforce cut.

The case for it

The backward-looking numbers (16.6x P/E, profitable, solid balance sheet) describe a company that no longer exists — a fast grower now facing its first-ever revenue decline. The cheap valuation reflects real, ongoing business deterioration, not a market overreaction.

What could go wrong

If you buy now, you're betting the layoffs and product fixes (e.g., its Kokai platform) restore growth quickly; but with guidance pointing to shrinking revenue and heavy competition from Amazon/Google's ad platforms, there's no evidence yet the decline has stopped, and further guidance cuts could follow at the Nov 5, 2026 earnings report.

Fwd P/E 13.9Op margin 14.2%Rev growth 3.0%Debt/equity 16.9%Analyst upside -2.9%

How this scored 59/100

✅ Passes all 4 hard checks — profitable, cash-generative, and financially survivable.

✅ Makes money Net profit margin 13.6%

✅ Generates cash Free cash flow $583M

✅ Not drowning in debt Debt/equity 16.9% (limit 200%)

✅ Can pay its bills Current ratio 1.7 (needs 1+)

Bar length shows how much each metric is worth — a 10-point metric is twice as wide as a 5-point one. Hover any row for what it means.

Profitability Does it actually make money? 15/25

Operating margin 14.2% 5/9

Net profit margin 13.6% 5/8

Return on equity 15.4% 4/8

Growth Is it getting bigger, or dying? 8/25

Revenue growth 3.0% 2/9

Earnings growth -23.6% 0/8

Expected profit change 20.0% 6/8

Value Is it cheap right now? 15/25

Forward P/E 13.9 8/10

PEG ratio 1.0 6/8

Analyst target upside -2.9% 0/7

Balance sheet Will it survive? 21/25

Debt / equity 16.9% 10/10

Current ratio 1.7 4/8

Free cash flow $583M 7/7

source · source · source · source

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