Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST): one to watch?

Speculative turnaround story with real profitability now, but extreme volatility, high debt and rate/credit sensitivity make it a hold-and-watch, not a clear buy.

👀 WATCH Fundamentals58/100

Down 94% from its all-time high of $390.00 — now $25.10

Why UPST dropped

Upstart crashed from its 2021 peak due to a lending-volume collapse when interest rates spiked and its AI credit model got blamed for rising loan losses; more recently in 2026 it has swung wildly on CEO Dave Girouard's abrupt departure, soft margin guidance, and periodic delinquency scares, even as it also posted a genuine return to GAAP profitability and record originations in Q2 2026.

Fwd P/E 7.2Op margin 7.2%Rev growth 42.3%Debt/equity 258.0%Analyst upside 59.4%

How this scored 58/100

✅ Passes all 4 hard checks — profitable, cash-generative, and financially survivable.

✅ Makes money Net profit margin 4.7%

✅ Generates cash Free cash flow $-132M

✅ Not drowning in debt Debt/equity 258.0% — exempt (banks run on leverage by design)

✅ Can pay its bills Exempt (financials)

Bar length shows how much each metric is worth — a 10-point metric is twice as wide as a 5-point one. Hover any row for what it means.

Profitability Does it actually make money? 6/25

Operating margin 7.2% 3/9

Net profit margin 4.7% 2/8

Return on equity 7.9% 1/8

Growth Is it getting bigger, or dying? 25/25

Revenue growth 42.3% 9/9

Earnings growth 211.2% 8/8

Expected profit change 568.5% 8/8

Value Is it cheap right now? 19/25

Forward P/E 7.2 10/10

PEG ratio unknown 2/8

Analyst target upside 59.4% 7/7

Balance sheet Will it survive? 8/25

Debt / equity 258.0% 0/10

Current ratio 10.5 8/8

Free cash flow $-132M 0/7

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Analysis generated by SmartStonks's AI from public fundamentals and news, first flagged 2026-09-11. Research only — not financial advice.