Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST): one to watch?

Business is genuinely recovering (profitable again, growing fast) but it's a highly leveraged, cyclical lender exposed to a credit downturn — not a screaming bargain yet.

👀 WATCH Fundamentals55/100

Down 92% from its all-time high of $390.00 — now $30.32

Why UPST dropped

The 2021 collapse (-92% from ATH) was driven by the Fed rate-hike shock killing loan demand, a well-understood and long-past event; the more recent -15% dip from its 30-day high reflects renewed worry about rising consumer defaults (its own "Macro Index" hitting elevated levels) and concerns about margins/leverage, not a scandal or fraud.

Fwd P/E 9.0Op margin 7.2%Rev growth 42.3%Debt/equity 258.0%Analyst upside 31.3%

How this scored 55/100

✅ Passes all 4 hard checks — profitable, cash-generative, and financially survivable.

✅ Makes money Net profit margin 4.7%

✅ Generates cash Free cash flow $-31M

✅ Not drowning in debt Debt/equity 258.0% — exempt (banks run on leverage by design)

✅ Can pay its bills Exempt (financials)

Bar length shows how much each metric is worth — a 10-point metric is twice as wide as a 5-point one. Hover any row for what it means.

Profitability Does it actually make money? 6/25

Operating margin 7.2% 3/9

Net profit margin 4.7% 2/8

Return on equity 7.9% 1/8

Growth Is it getting bigger, or dying? 25/25

Revenue growth 42.3% 9/9

Earnings growth 220.0% 8/8

Expected profit change 702.0% 8/8

Value Is it cheap right now? 16/25

Forward P/E 9.0 10/10

PEG ratio unknown 2/8

Analyst target upside 31.3% 4/7

Balance sheet Will it survive? 8/25

Debt / equity 258.0% 0/10

Current ratio 12.7 8/8

Free cash flow $-31M 0/7

🔒 Read the full AI analysis

Create a free account to unlock the bull case and the risks for UPST — plus today's other picks.

Analysis generated by SmartStonks's AI from public fundamentals and news, first flagged 2026-08-05. Research only — not financial advice.