Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO): a likely value trap?

Avoid — FICO's core moat (its mortgage credit-scoring monopoly) is being dismantled by regulators, and today's crash is the market re-pricing that real threat, not overreacting to noise.

⚠ TRAP Fundamentals71/100

Fell 17% in 1 trading day(s) — now $1139.54

$2403$390 peak $2375 20222023202420252026

Why FICO dropped

Today FICO fell after Q3 FY2026 earnings that actually beat on EPS ($12.18 vs ~$11.97 estimate) and raised full-year guidance, but revenue narrowly missed and the drop was amplified by debt-funded buybacks and valuation concerns; this is the latest in a string of 2026 selloffs (March, April, July) all tied to FHFA/Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac now allowing VantageScore 4.0 as an alternative to FICO scores for mortgages, ending FICO's long-standing regulatory monopoly in that business.

Fwd P/E 21.2Op margin 53.8%Rev growth 25.7%Debt/equity —Analyst upside 32.7%
How this scored 71/100
✅ Passes all 4 hard checks — profitable, cash-generative, and financially survivable.
✅ Makes money Net profit margin 34.1%
✅ Generates cash Free cash flow $774M
✅ Not drowning in debt Debt/equity unknown (limit 200%)
✅ Can pay its bills Current ratio 1.2 (needs 1+)

Bar length shows how much each metric is worth — a 10-point metric is twice as wide as a 5-point one. Hover any row for what it means.

Profitability Does it actually make money? 19/25
Operating margin 53.8% 9/9
Net profit margin 34.1% 8/8
Return on equity unknown 2/8
Growth Is it getting bigger, or dying? 25/25
Revenue growth 25.7% 9/9
Earnings growth 41.2% 8/8
Expected profit change 55.7% 8/8
Value Is it cheap right now? 16/25
Forward P/E 21.2 6/10
PEG ratio 1.0 7/8
Analyst target upside 32.7% 4/7
Balance sheet Will it survive? 11/25
Debt / equity unknown 3/10
Current ratio 1.2 1/8
Free cash flow $774M 7/7

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Analysis generated by SmartStonks's AI from public fundamentals and news, first flagged 2026-07-31. Research only — not financial advice.